Mohicans may have some valid observations, and always good to critique management gloss/hype. However, some corrections are in order:
Antares' 1400 BOEPD is 80% oil (stated in Strachan's report and inferred from Antares 30 March annual report), so probably not worthless chocolate muck. This is therefore much more than net 500 bopd rated by Mohican, unless I'm missing a calculation somewhere. Neither Bell Potter nor Mossberg state Antares' percentages of oil vs gas vs liquids, but they both refer to Permian as oil-rich.
As for pay-out, Antares has a detailed analysis in its Nov 2011 presentation, showing average payout of less than one year. I seem to recall a couple of wells with longer payout due to farm-in/partnership with others, but can't find that info right now. Volume drops 73% after one year (also see Nov 2011 presentation), but Bell Potter calculated that favorable cash flow occurs even with this decline (which is apparently typical). Antares estimates the average well remains productive (more than 4 BOPD) for 10 years.
As always, do your own research. I welcome corrections to the info presented here.
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