glencore pick up 2 million more btr, page-10

This is a really interesting discussion. I think the main question is: at what price the main share holders and other rather larger share holders would sell their shares to Glencore.

Let's assume that Glencore want to take control of BTR. Then they need more then 50 % of the shares. At moment they own how much ? Something around 20m pieces ? Well...then they need another roughly 40-50 m shares to have the majority. I guess that the want to buy this number of shares over the market, then they would substantially push the share prices.

What would then be the advantage to control the company with let's say a 52 % stake or so ? Well...I am not sure if this would really make sense. I rather have the feeling that then they could launch a public offer and probably be sure that they will succeed with the 100% take over.

Let's assume Glencore would make an offer next week ? What do you think would they have to offer that they really could take over BTR ? 2 A$ ? 3 ? 1.75 ? I do not believe that this would impress the long term holders to much. After having waited for such a long time, why sell before the possible potential at Mumbwa might unfold ?

So what are the options ? Might be that Glencore - if they are really interested - would accumulate shares at relatively low levels till they have the full control. As far I understand this is not possible, just because as a major share holder the have to display the numbers of shares that they are adding to their portfolio. I am wrong ?? I don't think so.

So what would you do if you were Glencore ? I would wait for the next drilling result at Mumbwa. I would try to make my own calculations in regard of the ressource upgrade at Kitumba (you can bet that they will do that !) and then I would make up my mind what the next steps might be.

Or stay at the sideline and waiting what happens ? Accumulate - difficult ? Make a public offer ? At what level ?

Well...Glencore has a lot of cash but I do not think that they have to rush in.

Let's assume (what might be quite probable) that Kitumba turns out to be a giant deposit, well...I guess still plenty of time then to grab BTR at 3, 4, 5 or more dollar. I guess the chance to take over the company with a let's say 30 % premium when the SP already stays at 4 dollar (e.g. = offer of 5.5 or 6) might have a good chance to be successfull.

If another bidder would kick in, well...good for us shareholder bad for Glencore.

So at the end of the day - and this is always the case in such situations - the share holders or the market is in the driver seat. In other words: If the market recognizes the real possible value of BTR in a few months and the SP rises steadily, then Glencore or whoever has to pay more. A lot more.

If the market has just the feeling that the current SP is fine, then Glencore has really plenty of time to plan a take over to a really favourable share price.

What are 500m for Glencore ? Pocket money.....and even if Mumbwa turns out to be giant and they would offer 1bn...do you think that Glencore really would care to pay such an amount if they are of the opionion that the could make a multiple out of their investment ? I don't think so.

Therefore the best scenario is: a rising share price - more good results and progress, production and profit, more good drilling results and at some point in time (lets say in 12-24 months) a really se.xy bid from Glencore of from somebody else.

Sorry for my english. I am not a native speaker (it's obvious).

I nice weekend to all BTR holders !