the inevitable downgrade, page-12

Well as a back of a postage stamp calculation I am getting an 11% reduction in production with a 9% increase in profit (on the reduced production). This is about 8% so call it 10%.

So yes a fall in SP is warranted but by about 10% year on year. The actual SP fall is about 33%

So if its SP is $27 and its Worth say $36 (10% off of $40) then that means it has 33% in it.

Not bad if you can get over the worries about what else is hitting it.