Ann: Share Purchase Plan Closes , page-32

"So...lets look at what we currently have...

Tranche 1 = $2.6m
Tranche 2 = $1.9m
SPP = $500k
"Cash at hand = ~$1.2m
Options conversion = ~$1.4m
Tax and other credits = ~$500k

Total = $8.1m

ATL1103 (Phase 2a) projected costs = ~$5m

This leaves about $3.1m in the kitty (less Patto's fees - I trust they reduce these significantly now)...or about 2 years admin costs based on previous years.

If something were to go wrong, arguably they could still get to the end of the year (and preliminary Phase 2a results for ATL1103), with as little as $6m as a starting base."





Really there's alot of speculation in that post - assuming that Tranche 2 materialises even though it still requires approval & sp. is currently more than 15% below (although they have the free option incentive & that 100% of options are converted - still likely being ITM at this point though.

Why do people continue to imply preliminary PhaseII data will be released this year when the company has stated "hopefully" interim data by mid 2013 ?


I was listening to Scott Powers RBS (nothing to do with ANP but applies in a general sense) one of Australias top biotech analysts & putting forward how RBS uses company figures when making valuations - & failry standard practice by many based on the nature of the sector.

Clinical Trials -

Double cost estimates & extend time frames by 12 months

Revenue Guidance -

Divide by 5


It's good explanation why management moved to raise much more than people here thought neccessary to advance trials & move forward as they are all to aware that costs often blow out.