Interesting article Zed... Using first home buyers as an indicator of a recovering market isn't something i'd bet the house on. Looking at the chart below this is a very volatile market that fluctuates very much on its own and then when a bit of stimulus cash (FHOG) is thrown in there its on steroids.
Its interesting how our friend Airey states "new dwellings had risen for a second quarter as the influence of house and land package marketing campaigns flowed through."
That green line on the graph shows new dwellings its hardly something to get excited about this is being driven by first home owners buying up existing stock.
Also from our mates at REIWA is the table below showing the areas where First Home Buyers are moving to:
Here is a map to humour those who aren't sure where these locations are:
So taking a look at the star performer Baldivis, based on the chart above we can see its not new dwellings they are buying so it must be existing stock. Now one would assume that since this is a hive of buying activity the turnover rate of properties must be pretty quick?
Unfortunately this isn't the case a whopping 163 days on the market (this is well above the Perth average). So what were really seeing is stock is being discounted to move it out the door, or maybe too many other first home owners in to deep? We have to remember Kwinana country down to Port Kennedy has some of the highest delinquencies in the country.
