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q and update, page-28

  1. 14,307 Posts.
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    They will be getting low for Andash so a cr is likely, but the amount is unknown because the project can easily handle a much larger debt than $50mill.
    At spot prices they should have cash after tax around $90 mill per year, so even a $90 mill loan can be paid back in a little over 1 year. Even 100% debt can be repaid in under 2 years so no cr needed from that point of view although the banks rarely want to fund 100%.
    They can then either wait 2-3 years after Andash commissions and have Andash cash flow pay the majority of cap costs for Jervois with the rest debt, or do another cr from a much higher sp once Andash is running and pay for Jervois with a split of equity/debt.
    With Andash running the sp needs to rise to $5 to get to a PE of around 6 and a cashflow multiple of 4.8.
    Thats combined earnings from Andash and Burnakura stage 3.
    At $5 a cr for Jervois will not be nearly as dilutive if combining debt/equity especially if waiting say two years after Andash commissions to get back to debt free and maybe around $80mill cash in bank.
    I don't see any need for a JV and if they don't rush into Jervois before Andash gets us up to atleast $5, we don't need to see too much dilution.
    If Jervois is looking very strong then it too may be factored into our sp by then so instead of $5, we may be sitting at $7 for a PE of around 8.
    By then who knows.
    Way too early to worry about Jervois funding now.
 
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