texas hold'em wednesday , page-15

In America:

Dow Industrials +0.5%
Dow Transports +1.07%
SP500 +0.57%
Russell 2000 -0.12%
Nasdaq100 +0.12%

Comment: The Dow 30 broke above major resistance (intra-day high) of 13297 then pulled back. It had been up very strongly early in the day on the back of an unexpectedly good manufacturing report. It gave back about half those early gains later in the day. The reversal on the Russell2000 was more marked – it ended the day negative after being up strongly early. That follows on from a bearish day the previous day. The Nasdaq100 gave a similar bearish performance although it finished marginally positive. Apple Inc. finished poorly (-0.32%) after being up strongly early in the day. It fell almost 2.5% from its intra-day high.

NewHighs/NewLows 216/8. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 96.4%. The Ratio remains in the “Do Not Sell” Zone above 80. Those are very positive numbers.

Technical Comment on the Dow 30:

The Dow finished at 13279.3. A new multi-year closing high, but still closed below the recent intra-day high.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 90.8. Overbought. Caution.
RSI.9 is at 64.6. Positive. Getting into rarefied air.
MACD Histogram. Above zero. Positive.
MACD. Above zero. Positive.
CCI.14: +144.5. Overbought.
The 10-DayEMA is above the 20-DayEMA. Positive.

There’s a lot to be concerned about. The reversals on the Nasdaq100 and R2K look ominous; but the trends on the Dow and SP500 remain up. Respect the trends.

Yesterday in Australia, the final figure was quite strong, but the market sold off in the last hour. That’s usually “smart money” selling in the last hour. It looked like distribution to me. We might be up today, but I wouldn’t expect much (post-RBA hangover?). It might depend on the market reaction to the ANZ report out this morning. If the market reaction is positive and it flows on to the other banks then it could be a solid day up. But we’ll have to wait and see how the market reacts.

In last night’s report on the Australian market, I thought we were at or close to a short term top. Nothing in the American action has changed that view. But - until the trend actually changes, the trend is the trend is the trend.

Redbacka.