If I were to attempt what you ask I will look pretty dumb at some stage no doubt...too many variables. But I reckon somewhere between 12c ($360m) and 20c ($600m) by year end.
"Mr O'Brien told The Express this week the government was confident "a strong level of interest" from numerous companies wanting access to this area's coal would be confirmed in an expression of interest process to commence within the next two months...
The State Government's EOI process would take around six weeks to complete and a full tender process should be underway by the end of this year, Mr O'Brien said."
So the EOI process starts about May 22 or earlier and runs for 6 wks...so completed about July 4
EOI will be open to everyone. Seems once they shortlist, only a few will be invited to apply via the tender process.
I notice ECT were very enthusiastic in their response to the "Pilbara" ann...another significant iron in the fire coming? _____________________ pss...another date...the federal government’s June 30 deadline for contracts for closure re 2000MW
"It’s a tough but critical task. After all, without any power plant retirement there will be very little investment in new power stations, minimal emissions reductions and we’ll continue to flog outdated and highly polluting power stations until they fall apart due to a lack of investment in maintenance."
This is a HUGE signal to the market to research BCE wannabees techs and "back your winner". 2000MW will mean either Hazlewood or Yallourn will close maybe by 2020...but ONLY after 2000MW ++ is built to replace it. The race will be on post June 30 (now actually) as to which/who/when/what will get the nod.
IMO...we can rule out nat gas (price will be tied to POO etc)...USC (Greens/public wont allow etc)
Which leaves....? Lignite/BCE gasification in some context. Syngas/IGCC etc. IMO there is NO way the next base load LY p/station will be anything but lignite powered. Victoria MUST have CHEAP lignite based baseload...Alcoa etc. Victoria MUST have vastly reduced emissions. IMO the "Pilbara" move highlights the Vic/Fed Govts are intent on utilizing lignite in the next LV base load p/station full stop.
http://www.world-ctl.com/program/apr17-technology
Lignite Drying for Gasification - Eiichiro Makino, President, K-Coal, Korea.
Notice Dr Makino is the ONLY speaker on this subject at an extremely prestigious event...and thats appropiate as he is regarded as one of if not the worlds expert on lignite gasification.
"Mr. Makino became President of K-Coal on 1st January 2012, after almost forty years with Sojitz Corporation of Japan and its predecessor company Nissho Iwai Corporation. Mr. Makino is regarded as one of the coal industry’s foremost technical and commercial experts....A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), providing K-Coal with exclusive sales and marketing rights for Coldry into South Korea, was signed as was an agreement for K-Coal to provide consultancy services through its President Mr. Eiichiro Makino to assist in the commercialisation of Coldry across Northern Asia, including Korea and Japan.."
Possibly Dr Makino will be utilized in the LV somewhere re Coldry gasification? Are not AGL a gas coy?
Bottom line is BCE techs are going to be in major focus soon...choose your tech...Exergen or Coldry or?...Ive chosen mine!
Anyway - shortly we should see the 3b that confirms Monash's $4m. Can anyone remember ANYONE of Monash's calibre investing $1m let alone $4m?
Top 40's to come soon after is usually the case?
Add the above events to all the other things happening atm and IMO there is plenty to be excited about short/med/long term ...the sp seems to agree
(20min delay)