"Building production facilities" is simply par for the course.
Wells that produce 25 bopd have production facilities on site, as do wells that produce 2500 bopd. Anyone that's done any amount of DD realizes this. I feel these were "calming words" from TB, but the market realizes this and the lack of solid set in stone oil production numbers only decreases confidence in results as the days drag on, adding to continual drop in the stock price.
Gretel appeared to have high formation pressure hence the quantities of frac water being recovered early on, but here we are a month and a half removed from frac completion with no mention of any oil cut to date. Add to that, the decision has been made to install a pump, further decreasing the odds of a 500 bopd + well.
Aust II produced 600bbl during the plug removal process. The Frac process concluded Monday Feb 27th, with flowback already underway. The well was shut in briefly secondary to debris, to settle. If memory serves the well was shut in less than a week. Point is, the removal process took over two months to complete after delays, fishing expeditions, etc. Hence, that 70 bopd # was more impressive than the 600 bbl over 2 months. Bottom line, the pump (being installed now), will help fluid production but the chances of a 800 bopd, or even 500 bopd well are slim to none.
TB bit the bullet and installed the jet pump on defender, expensive and requires frequent maintainance visits. Calibrating for 250 bfpd, don't know what to make of this. Anyway, Hal is still interested.
All in all, its amazing and almost unbelievable to think management would consider even releasing the potential compensation package to be voted on May 30. And to release it on the date they did is even more suspect, and a flat out slap in the face to shareholders, as is the amended press release yesterday.
I no longer hold SSN but still follow closely. Without good well results this will continue to drift south. Less than a 50/50 chance for my money, but it's worth keeping an eye on because the farther it falls, the more room there is to run should the tide turn and TB reports good news.
So much on the table still, with very few clear answer or future guidance. Bring some clearity one way or another TB.
SSN Price at posting:
8.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
