sanfelipe's friday lowish low, page-30

Thanks barnsty

Not that I know anything about TA, but I am wondering if the SPX could reach 1160, which is where one of your lower lines is drawn. Morgan Stanley have a target of 1167, while JPMorgan think the S&P600 will head to 1450 this year (maybe they know something we do not, like QE3 coming).

If the US market is headed to 1160 then the present bounce in the USD POG, HUI, GDX, GDXJ could prove to be temporary. Base metal prices where down last night while USD POG was around $50 up on its previous day low. This could just be a short term reaction. Retail demand for gold in China and India has fallen from its peak, and inflation in China is lower.

I thought that Greece going back to hold elections and Merkel making some soothing comments about helping them would have calmed the markets for a few weeks. Instead there was another big fall in the US and Europe.

The BRICs look a lot weaker now that China has tried to dampen its economy and Europe has a slowish meltdown. The Economic Research Cycle Institute has been claiming that a global recession is on its way, and markets tend to start falling ahead of the actual recession.

US economic data is getting weaker. No doubt Benny will do some printing if their economy falters more in a presidential election year. Is the USD POG being premature in rising at this point? It could be based on moves over the last 2 years, because once markets really tank all risk assets sell off together. At least that is what I think happens, but I am mostly wrong.

loki