Sorry I should have used better terminology and included all of the drills rather than focussing on the one we all tend to think of when we think of Blina (ie the first dril).
Blina 1 flowed 36 bbl/d from the Yellowdrum formation which is what Backreef is targetting. That particular drill wasn't commercial from the Yellowdrum however Blina 4 and Blina 6 were commercial from the Yellowdrum with Blina 4 flowing at 65-93bbl/d and 6 much the same although I could find no published figures.
If backreef flows you'd have to guess it would be around 60bbl/d given the similarities but really it can vary quite a bit I mean even within 400m at Blina (only 2 of the 8 drills produced from the yd, but they didn't all intersect it properly given it's a lot smaller than the nullara target). They call it tight so you wouldn't think it's going to be amazing but they had trouble measuring the vertical permeability in Blina which allowed the otherwise tight Yellowdrum to flow so who knows?
Will it be commercial? It's hard to say. I mean overall I don't think it will be commercial in the sense that the drill cost over $5M and OBL themselves estimate Backreef is worth $3-$5M.. but that's shareholder's money (some of it mine) so that doesn't count ;). If it's 60-90bbl/d and they could truck it for ~$20/bbl I'm sure they'd claw some of that back.
Got to say I'm enjoying the suspense, it's a numbers game and I think I've played as well as I can based on my research, but I'm starting to doubt getting my cheap entry for Derby :).
I know discussing this is a little silly given we'll know exactly whats going on in a matter of days and it will make the conjecture totally redundant, but hey, what else do we have to do ;).
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