takeover at these prices just not on, page-17

Read the latest CBA significant holder announcement. All are CBA except for the nominee company that has accumulated 20 million in just over a month. Thats not a market shorting play IMO and BOA may well just have bought a poison pill if they have been playing borrowed stock.

In reality Futuris looks like a fair value to NAV IMO. The negative IMO is the onerous leases on the plantations in forestry. That is a negative unless you look at the latest announcement GFC has agreed to take over 12 of those leases as part of its deal on the same terms as Elders. So you get to write off a bit of money but stop the bleed on 12 out of 20 properties. I reckon that the rest are not far away. So you take a haircut on the sales price but in reality you dont get to decide an enterprise value by just looking at it you have to look at the sum of the parts and the market cap is for the ordinaries - Everyone else out there has valued the hybrids @ $150m and the net after that is the $90m.

My view is that there is significant upside but the AFR was doing a floater to see the commentary and reaction of holders - You can even phone the party that has been appointed who wont disclose anything but see what you are prepared to sell your hybrids at its a big win if they can secure 50% of the hybrids @ $50 each.

My view is that directors may know a bit but they are not in this loop this is someone with intent and whilst I was prepared to think it was a smoke and mirrors article to create intrigue - after the CBA announcement I think it has a real ring to it. Guys I think ELD has someone interested who wants to put a sniff out there and as the hybrids are so widely held they cannot talk to too many before it leaks so its a floater of an idea and see what you do.

My valuation would be $75 per hybrid plus 6 months distribution and 40 to 50c per ordinary. I would sell and I have both in roughly the same values.