Take your point that there are a lot of longer term plays for EEG, however, the real game changer will be the NY State fracking moratorium being lifted which is quite near term.
I think the stock currently prices in a zero value for these assets which in the current climate is pretty understandable. The c400,000 acres aren't worthless though, they are just worth less if they cannot be horizontally drilled. So, in the worst case scenario that the ban is upheld, well, we are pretty much there anyway.
In the event that the State allows drilling there could be a cash injection into the company that is literally in the hundreds of millions of dollars. How can I make this claim with any confidence? In July 2010 the company sold a tract of Marcellus acreage in Pennsylvania, where fracking is encouraged, and raised $c25m at ~$4000 per acre.
People should form their own view on what they think the 400,000 areas of New York Marcellus and Utica would be worth in the absence of the fracking ban, however, a report from Standard Chartered on the Shale gas industry released this week estimates that the NPV on Utica could be up to $10,000 per acre. Personally, I think that is a bit punchy and probably represents the best of the best dry gas zone, so, to be ultra conservative, assume $2000 p/a and to be more conservative again, assume the same $2k for Marcellus ........
$800,000,000. Hardly loose change for a co with a $50m market cap !!
EEG Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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