last nights calcs , page-25

Yes - bit of a blood bath on Friday and no doubt beach will be hit like most other stocks. However they are any a very very strong position having raised cash at an optimal time which again seems to be another great move by management. Bpt current shareprice represents a discount to it's core conventional business and cash. It's shale gas assets provide the element of surprise factor which can materialize at any point in time. There is a great report on their website by DNB which despite being the most conservative valuation wise with a price target of only 1.47 bs 1.71 by Macquarie and 2 dollars by Euroz , it provides a value using last years reserve number which will be no doubt higher given reserve additions by SXY, DLS and COE as well as the STO additions and potential some Egyptian additions. What the research does provide is a great chart depciting the value of BPT shale acreage based on various price assumptions of value per acre. The chart represents a almost linear value eg at 2000 Acre a 2 billion value , at 5000 per acre a five billion dollar value etc. Although I do not expect a deal to be done at the same prices as the US ave of 10000 per acre - I think even a deal valuing the shale at 1000 per acre could Realise 1 billion dollars worth of value . I am not sure what value a would be farm in partner would place on existing infrastructure but one would assume it's avaiabikity adds value to a JV.
I note total owns the Adjoining block lake tanganyika and was also one of the parties talking to BPT re shale. I think the SP and global weakness may bring out a deal or corporate action sooner than later
Admittedly the sharemarket performance is worrying of late - but despite what seems to be a massive sell off in oil Tapis is still commadind a price of 105 Aud which is very robust and the second key source of revenue - gas prices has been verb strong this year so it times like these it's importnant to separate semtiment driven SP changes and value driven SP changes .