RED 5.06% 37.5¢ red 5 limited

yeah yeah i know should have loaded up at $1.3, page-7

  1. 1,864 Posts.
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    What I took from this morning's announcement is that they are still experiencing operational issues. I have mentioned this before, but I see this as normal during ramp-up.

    There is no doubt that the recent SP fall was primarily due to commodity prices - completely overdone in my opinion. In this environment gold will get good support, however I am keeping a very close eye on it. A balanced view needs to be held as the traditional thinking that the commodity is a safe haven changing. Its changing because the world can no longer afford the current prices, with India and China as the largest consumers of it. A slow down in both regions is happening right now (as it is in the RoW).

    Operationally, there has been a severe downgrade. Previous forecast was 18K oz to FY12. Now its 7.8K. FY13 forecast hasnt changed because it hasnt started and it is a conservative est.

    There is still no news on root cause of pit ingress. We only have an update on dewatering progress which is obvious to say the least. i.e when you pump water out you expect levels to lower. I'd be interested to know what happens when they actually hit the water table and/or what happens with rain. Still unresolved in my opinion.

    Nonetheless 7.8K oz @$1000/oz (less $600 costs) - which was the average for the period is no small fry. It just goes to show you that the company is a cash cow. Also the recent CR looks to be a stroke of genius in terms of timing and need.
 
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