germany, not greece, out of step with eurozone, page-8

  1. 1,499 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 152
    Jantimot,

    I sympathise with your view, but it's too far too late to try paying off Eurozone debt without printing the money needed. Even if Germany was willing to try, it hasn't anywhere near the cash needed to bail out the vast Southern Eurozone debts.

    Besides, the factors that drove debt growth in the first place are still operative, and some are set to worsen, as follows:

    1. Soverereign default risks are increasing rapidly, and the pool of funds available globally for lending is contracting, such that interest rates on debt are set to rise.

    2. China is remaining successful partly because it is effectively printing Yuan to buy USD, enabling USA consumers to keep affording Chinese exports. If Germany stops the Eurozone from money-printing, China and other exporters that are continuing to aggressively devalue their currencies will seize even more market share, reducing still further the capacity of the Eurozone to make repayments.

    3. Eurozone debts are now so large that even meeting the interest payments is either difficult or impossible.

    4. The main driver for debt growth in the Eurozone has arguably been a loss of competitiveness and market share when exposed, by a globalised economy, to Asian labour rates that are a fraction of European labour rates. Market forces haven't yet neutralised this competitive advantage.

    5. European industrialisation is at a more mature stage than that of China and other Asian countries, such that rates of improvement remain less meteoric.

    In short, whatever either of us might prefer, the Eurozone can't choose to repay its collective debts by normal means. In such a situation it's usually considered, when default or avoidance are the only strategies left, that the least destructive option is to print the debts away.

    I'd also argue that unrepayable war reparations debt was the root cause of Germany's misery in the 1920's, not hyperinflation. Nowadays, Germany is more likely to be a creditor than a debtor, and for creditors it makes sense to me to make sure that the currency that they're owed remains strong, by weakening their own.

    Just my opinion.

    Grav
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.