MM; speculation or not, my call for XAO ca 5000 by end of 2012 still stands providing DJI remains above 12,000 during this period. My downside targets are also elaborated upon in various SEA threads. DJI is now 12,767 and we are still ca 4100, so IMHO a rally is in order if 12,000 holds. The flip-side is that we should be relatively buffered (cf USA) if a European implosion is initiated this weekend.
I'm looking to purchase a decent number of additional SEA shares as I have funds from a substantial holding in EKA that I wish to reinvest. I am able to justify adding more SEA (whereas in the past I was risk managing) as the fundamentals of SEA have greatly improved in recent months (apart from POO). Just look at the production numbers for instance, let alone the business strategy and acerage positions in terms of potential for upside.
I'm neither a Bull nor a Bear, and per what I was posting about on SEA threads prior to our market turning downwards, my models had shown an inflection and I was simply being cautious (at a time when many were only looking at onwards and upwards). What I see now, is that our market is clearly undervalued wrt USA. We have priced in more gloom, so if this doesn't eventuate, then we should rally, relative to USA. If gloom eventuates, then we should be buffered, relative to USA. I realise that this is very simplistic (especially coming from somebody who applies complex statistical analysis and mathematical modelling for tracking markets), but as far as I'm concerned, it's as good or as bad as any other call out there. I bought SEA sub-10c per my historical postings on SEA threads, so my track record is out there.
Intended as discussion only, and not to be regarded as financial advice in an way, shape or form.
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