lynas approval at last but licence in the mail

Quite a good summary of the situation below. Not sure where the following bit came from but wouldn't surprise me if it took another two months to get the licence:

"Assuming a two-month wait for the licence handover..."

Lynas approval at last, but licence in the mail

Lynas Corp (LYC) 93.5c; MALAYSIA'S long-awaited decision to approve the rare-earths producer's processing plant has proved a share-price fizzer, mainly because the government is yet to hand over the piece of paper allowing Lynas to begin processing the ore imported from its Mount Weld mine in Western Australia.

While Kuala Lumpur is running out of reasons not to do so, investors are wary about more delays to the $800 million project, as well as the country's shifting pre-election political sands.

Lynas shares edged up 5.5c (6 per cent), but the stiff volume (60 million shares) shows many fed-up speculators seized the chance to exit the stock.

The relevant minister has dismissed the opponents' appeal against the Atomic Energy Licensing Board's decision to approve the operating licence, but with two new conditions for which Lynas has "available solutions".

One, an emergency response plan to subdue dust in case the sprinkler system fails, certainly looks like box ticking.

Attention now turns to the findings of a parliamentary select committee, to report this week.

Lynas is adamant the plant is safe and that opponents' claims of "another Fukushima" have been discredited. But given the plant is opposed by the main opposition party, which has a chance of winning a pending election, there's more reason for due process to not only be followed, but seen to be adhered to.

There's also talk of an appeal by the opponents, but given the AELB decision, that looks like the end of the legal road for the protesters.

Doubts will cloud Lynas until the almost-completed plant is commissioned.

"Unfortunately, this is not the first time we have seen positive news flow hindered by further conditions, and as a result we still believe the market will want to see the (plant) producing rare earths, and Lynas generating cash," Goldman Sachs told clients yesterday.

Assuming a two-month wait for the licence handover, the cash should be rolling in well before Christmas. Meanwhile, rare-earth prices have stabilised around $US57/kg a "basket", having soared to $US150 a kilogram last year, when China constrained exports of these crucial industrial ingredients. We maintain a speculative buy, in view of the stock at least doubling on successful commissioning.