Paul
You are right, but I think we will get the answer to your question (can they increase oil production inline with expectations) over the next 3-6 months.
After playing KAR (mostly with a few others thrown in) for a couple of years with the only basis being what they have in the ground and not whether they can sell it or not I completely get where you are coming from.
MAD management have been very open about the strategy and to date have been very successful. I personally don't see the SP breaking $2 without the production strategy being proven (at higher rates), but when they do it will be a good day for all holding this stock.
My view is the current SP is a undervalued when you look at the valuation approach taken with most O&G stocks.
I am in and here to stay, so if the SP is deflated for a little while until the strategy is proven I am not too fussed. I feel far less risk in MAD than any other O&G stock I have been involved in. The worst case scenario is not that ugly with MAD...
Cheers
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