monday musings, page-71

meow, thanks for the comments, as for my earlier no show, well got a few issues which at present we're trying to come to terms with, though certainly nothing to do with a loss of motivation of this charting stuff mate.

Also not sure what the requirements are for a monthly double bottom to form, but I'd say that atm its trying to hold near last years lows but importantly this time around its doing it on much less volume.

cheers



"..I know charting pureists will all holler that FA does not matter however you are dealing with investors who DO follow FA also so in their mind it does change the landscape because it adds some certainty to the companies direction and they will be the ones buying."

Hi Timmo, ya ready for it mate :), As a charting purist I/we dont really care what the FA of a company is, we only follow the chart, sorry but thats the honest truth, I got called a liar last time this was mentioned on this thread and will never talk to that person again.

Within our 'outside' HC trading group we frown/mock any mention of a companies FA. I was charting this particular stock on HC for a few months thinking that it was one of those bio tech companies only to find later it was actually an oil company :(, but not to worry cause we only look at the 3letters that make up its code and as long as it has healthy volumes and isn't less than say 10cents we'll attempt to chart it.



"..If I get what you are saying on the daily then its that the SP will be going north and then it will retrace. At that point it will be safe to buy in..yeah? Do you then see a risk that the $1 mark will be retested therefore a buy now is a risky move?.."

My chart of last night was only an example of what may happen around our previous TR levels, and if it did, after hitting prior resistance (1.125) and being repelled (just like today at $1.075)) we'd then wait for a bullish retracement ( do we know what a bullish retracement looks like? ) before taking what is a low risk entry to the north. In other words we'd be waiting for signs on the chart of 'no supply/testing'.

It may not happen at all, it may just continue south but this is what we look out for, this is our roadmap of what should/could be happening at particular levels on the chart.

"...If you were to wait for the retrace than I would assume it will be at a higher price than what we are currently so there will be some profit left on the table by waiting for that retrace. Further what do you see as the main factor driving that retrace? (supply/then a lack of it) Profit taking of course comes into play BUT given the FA side of things many holders will be looking for a much higher point of profit now that the operations have derisked significantly? ..."

I understand your above views but you must understand that I'm a LT holder who trades/hedges on a ST basis on only what is visible on the chart and we only enter trades when low risk. I can see or believe you are asking why not buy now (yesterday) if its going to go north. Point is as mentioned it may not go north, we just trade on what is present, not what we think a companies price may do in the future. If we see signs of weakness we deal with it, if signs of strength are beginning to develop we may decide to slowly unwind a hedge/buy more etc. This morning I was naked but as I mentioned to Rorkes I think before trade commenced, if any signs of weakness appeared I would then possibly decide to protect my weeks gains which I did at $1.05 but have covered them once again on market close. There's more than one way to skin a cat hey.

Also ref your comment of that 'retrace', my comment of it yesterday must have confused a few posters, sorry for that, as my example should have shown that it may take weeks for it to get up near that previous resistance level of $1.12, if at all, so the retrace would possibly be of a similar time (weeks). If we panned into a weekly chart we may see a bullish weekly retracement sitting above the top of our previous TR bottom/support, that would be ideal.

cheers

day chart for today