update released, page-17

Are you sure thats the 6000KCal price you're looking at Hope?

The current CLSPARB export price for the lower quality thermal export is $81.92.

I believe this is only updated at best weekly due to the lower number of contracts that come out of the RBT.

This is the link to the Bloomberg 6000Kcal chart which is a monthly chart(weekly price).You generally get the updated price each Monday morning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CLSPSARB:IND/chart

It does have interactive daily/weekly charts but these dont seem to have any data being fed into them.

I would like to think this is the bottom for thermal coal of all descriptions but its hard to tell given it seems the Euro thing still seems to have a little while to play out.

Im guessing much will depend on just how hard Chinese/Indian exports are being hit given these were the main propping thermal buyers coming into this downswing.The other big variable is what the average production cost for the bigger producers is until they no longer make decent returns from their thermal ops.

Dont forget thermal demand is also cyclic and tends to rise into winter from memory in the northern hemisphere.

Also worth keeping an eye on stockpile news because as with all commodities rising/large stagnant stockpiles generally reads as a lack of demand.

As you say,hopefully the bottom is not far away and Conti manage to get Penumbra happening sooner rather than later as this seems to be looking to be the best margin operation for them.And as Mihal said dont forget Sth Afr domestic demand for which they now have Eskom contracts, which nowadays have better margins.And it would seem this demand should remain healthy with those new and upgraded power plants coming on-line soon.

On balance it looks to me that Conti should weather this storm but much depends on that Export thermal price not getting too much below what it is now so that Pen gives a goodly margin.

d.