Has anything they've done been for the better?
The consolidation was bought upon to artificially increase the share price of the stock, because apparently they couldn't get any serious cornerstone investors on board when the stock had a share price less than 10c. Socius then turned up, but has their stake in the stock tightened up the registry at all? Not at all. I was a real sceptic of consolidation when it was announced, and the trading since then has confirmed my fears.
What else is there?
The AIM listing took place to increase public awareness of the stock, and to get some UK investors on board who supposedly "understood resource stocks better". Has Conti got any sophistitacted UK firms on the stock? Well they have Barclays putting research out on it from what I recall, but I don't believe they have a position in Conti.
Then there's the projected free cash flow figures. Supposedly $15M per annum from Penumbra. If they are so confident in this cashflow, then why don't they put out a profit guidance? Hands up anyone who reckons they will generate $15Mpa from Penumbra? And keep your hand up if that money won't be wiped away with corporate overheads?
Put simply, there's no confidence in this stock at all. Everything they do or touch has turned to dust, and coal prices are declining.
The company can have all the experience and know-how on the board they want, but its the projects that matter. Conti's saving grace in the past was that they were a good operator. They kept to their budgetted production. Now, with coal prices where they are, I struggle to see how Conti can generate enough profits from their mines to pay off debt, to line the wallets of the board, and to fund projects in the pipeline. This is why the stock is getting battered, and it won't recover until the board remove the smoke and mirrors and come out and give some profit/loss guidance figures so that shareholders know where they stand. None of this cashflow from mine crap. The market wants to know how much Conti as a company is set to make or lose. Trust me, if they can project cashflow from a mine, then it really isn't that difficult to do!
Yes, most coal stocks are falling, but that does that make what Conti are doing right? Of course not. They've done bugger all to reduce corporate overheads, and they've now handed the fate of the stock over to a share market pest in Bergen. If Conti have such a great board loaded with 100+ years of coal industry experience, then they should be able to manage their capital position better; yes?
If I sound angry, rash and dissapointed for shareholders, I am. To resort to Bergen really was the last straw. How did they get it so wrong?
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