Hi FnF,
I agree with you 110% on a Cap Raising at these levels. It would be absolutely diabolical and may see many LTers exit the stock - I would be one of them.
RE: Cash this quarter
I think we are really looking at 45,000 to 50,000 tops this quarter. My stab below. Note: I had Laverton at 33,129. That was a massive typo.
Coolgardie
24,218 Oz at cash cost of $1,018/oz
Laverton
23,129 Oz at a cash cost of $1,112/oz
If we do the above for example, we get cash in of approx 75.75M (@ 1600 per oz which I think they should be able to get close to on average).
In the last quarter, they reported production costs of $49M for 47,000 Oz and this quarter, they are stating $59M for a similar quantity of ounces. Surely that can't be correct - or again are cash costs going to increase once more?
If they did spend the $69M they forecast, that would leave us with $6M cash this quarter, but based on the fact i think cash costs will reduce (irrespective of Hartleys), then we may be able to get around $9-10M - that is my guess.
Anything less than that, I will once again be frustrated.
Slura raised some good points when he mentions what FML had forecast for Coolgardie (130,000oz) and what is actually happening (less than 100,000 Oz). I would much prefer to be sitting here now, knowing nothing of CRE and had Coolgardie at 130,000 Oz with a cash cost of $800 and a lot of money in the bank rather than where we are now. Simply being a top 5 producer based on Oz isn't going to make you a wealthy company. I participated in the last cap raising, and had I known where the money would have actually gone, I wouldn't have bothered to be honest. I really though my cash was going to a Ferrari, not a Datsun 200B that they thought they could turn into a Ferrari through black magic.
CRE may one day prove to be a great asset, but for right now, FML is skating way to close to the edge for my liking. If gold falls $100/oz and costs rise $100/oz at 45,000oz a quarter, then we will run through that current $16M in the bank before December. That is a concern.
So, FML have gone out on a limb in my mind and tried to create shareholder wealth - why would I believe otherwise. Fact is, that to date, they have not achieved this objective and many of us, yourself included to an extent, have become increasingly frustrated at their inability to deliver.
From an operational perspective, the company has gone ahead in leaps and bounds but this has not give rise to what they clearly said they would do in previous announcements and at AGM's which is "create shareholder wealth".
When I came aboard FML it was a speculative stock. That was a few years ago. Now, from producing next to zip to providing 175,000oz / year (and yes, I now realise that too is a flaky number is it includes ALL CRE production, not just the attributable amount), it is once again, highly speculative IMO. This should not be the case.
I joined a company that should have become solid. It should have grown organically and from within and seen profits each and every quarter with the rise of the gold price from when I initially invested. Like you say, I am one of the investors with an average price above 5. Thanks for nothing Campbell. Hope you drive a nicer car than me. Ah - it's not personal - just think you could have done a better job as CEO.
I am still hanging in there - I myself ask "why on earth" quite often recently in the hope that one day, they won't need to keep spending so much on production and development and become a cash cow, for if they don't, they will end up with 10billion shares on issue and a share price of 2c
FML management needs to take a good hard look at itself and ask "where have we gone wrong". They the need to say "what can we do better" and focus on doing those things such as reducing expenditure. I am not a bottomless pit of cash and they shouldn't expect that we will continue to dip our hands into the kitty at their every whim particularly when last time we did, they spent the money on something other than what they committed to when I signed up for more shares.
I don't know whether they read posts in here, but if they do, I have one last thing to say to them and that is, "wake up to yourselves - you need to finally focus on doing whatever you can in your business to provide some benefit to your investors and stop chasing pipe dreams until you deliver those benefits" and ask yourself "have I got the best possible result I could from the decisions I have made on behalf of shareholders and actions I have taken on behalf of shareholders whilst employed by, and working for FML" - Hint, the answer is a 2 letter word and starts with N!!!!
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