projected profit with current re prices, page-15

valininvestor,
I think you painted a too dark picture of Lynas vs. BHP. Thus, your conclusions are way too pessimistic.
1. The forward P/E of BHP is not 6-7 as you wrote but 11.31.
2. The debt of BHP is not minuscule relative to their market cap - as you wrote. The debt is 25B where as their market cap is 165B.
3. The interest Lynas pays is much smaller than your 6% estimate. For example on the 225M debt to Mt. Kelet they pay just 2.25%.
4. The only speculative part of Lynas future is the TOL, which will be resolved shortly. Their REE is already sold for the next 10 years. In comparison, BHP sells mostly coal, Iron ore and Cupper. 3 products which their demand is now in severe decline and with a lot of competition from other manufacturers. Whereas Lynas has no competition outside China (I consider Molycorp as a Chinese company as well since their products will be refined in China).

In conclusion, your analysis is severely biased IMO.