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toby marchant gone by june 30. 100%., page-15

  1. asf
    9,887 Posts.
    Yes, Graham, I get that article. It says an industry insider can fix a business when it has gone wrong from non-industry Board members. I hope that is the case, because I think Mr Price will probably become the head of PPX, or perhaps become a Director first, but learning a business takes time. Bill Wild couldn't fix HST. I have seen heads of PPX come and go- well, read about them, and all were blamed by their predecessor, and Orbis said the next was better than the last, and it would be a shame if it happened again. Some say that having a geo as an MD/CEO is the death of a mining company- I am not exactly sure why, but this is what they say. So, perhaps industry insiders are better for newspapers and paper companies, but not for mining companies. One just doesn't know until they give it a crack, or have the opportunity to do so, in Mr Price's case. Mark Hooper was the CFO of Paperlinx and then went on to make the basket case that was Sigma Pharmaceuticals into something good and solid. Some jobs just suit some people better.

    There is always jawboning about particular companies. The problems of PPX makes it a great target for PE, just as the problems for FXJ make it a great target for PE, who have said they'd take FXJ when the SP reached 30c. That was unthinkable at the time, but now we have Ms Rhinehart pretending to sell her shares, it puts more pressure on the SP. We may well see 30c yet, and Ms Rhinehart would probably do quite well out of it- her and PE. However, when people in the know saay that there are *industry* problems- as opposed to just indivisual company problems- then I listen. Mr Murdoch says newspapers have problems, Mr Harvey says retail has problems. These people own the companies mostly, and have little to gain from telling it as it is. bricks and mortar is in decline, paper is in decline. APN is moving to digital media, and even though it is at year lows, in my opinion, it will do better down the track.

    All companies want to keep performing assets and ditch non-performers. I see Mr Price saying there has to be more aggression- $100m loss has to equal $100m savings- perhaps from sackings and shutdowns. MYR and BBG have had the same issues- damned if they open stores, damned if they close stores. BBG was damned for selling half a valuable asset, and then damned for not selling the other half instead of having their deeply discounted raising. If PPX raises cash, and I think they should do so, they will be damned, too.

    PPX has been lucky so far in a way: New york hedge funds targeted RPF. They bought the debt of their tenant and of RPF, at a fraction of the cost, then put the tenant into administration, and when the tenant could not pay its rent, they threatened to put RPF into administration, too. Sure, there were other issues- plenty of them, and it was complex. They made an offer to RPF, though: 8c to holders. The Board rejected it as lowball. Other suitors waited in the wings, so it was said- perhaps a Macquarie-led consortium. Rumours of a 6c offer. Then a final offer by the hedge funds- 2c or administration. That offer was accepted- even with the NTA at 10X that amount. The first offer is not always the last, and the last can be lower.

    I hope the share price does go up for PPX- Mr Price's appointment might be the catalyst. Then, when the share price is high enough, I hope he raises capital- and a massive amount of capital. A 9c offer is now a 40% premium to the Ords- not enough, no, but it could start to look good soon. A $21 for PXUPA's is about 2.5X. No details on what price the PXUPA buyback will be, or how "limited" it will be. As everyone is flying blind, no-one knows what price to pay for PXUPA on market.

    A tough market doesn't help. Maybe a new person can, but Mr Price is just a person. I hope the faith in him doesn't end up damning him if he too finds it hard going at PPX.
 
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