lows for tomorrow , page-2

Uranium price and market outlook (RCR Uranium Sector Review
Exploration, Development & Production June Quarter 2012)

The uranium spot price is US$50.75/lb. The spot market has been trading in the range of US$50-55/lb over the past 12 months, except for a short upside breakout in November. Immediately prior to the Fukushima accident (11 March 2011), the spot price had been trading at US$67.75/lb (+20%), a 12 month high.

Japan announced 16 June 2012 the first restart of 2 nuclear reactors. Further restarts are anticipated from the fleet of 50 reactors (all of which had been shut down for maintenance or safety reviews) with additional restarts expected to occur over a 2 year timeframe - from 2012 to 2014.

Despite the initial restarts, the spot price is expected to remain under pressure near term, reflecting the ongoing impact of reactor shutdowns and closures in Japan and Germany. While there is no active supply into the spot market reported at present, there remains the potential for utility surplus dispositions. The spot market is also impacted by Japanese renegotiation of ongoing delivery contracts for surplus supply.

As such, the demand outlook for the next 6 months appears quiet. The main potential to move the market is possible production delays that lead to producer on-market purchases to meet delivery commitments; to illustrate the point, we note Rio’s production in 2011 was down 35% yoy (to 10.6mlbs U3O8) reflecting operational issues at Rossing and Ranger.

al1 - I'm not sure that post-EOFY is going to make much difference to the share price ... and ROI for uranium shares looking a lot more long term than we may think ... unless there is a bull run on the sector ...