given the information that is currently in the public domain, I would expect the following players to enter the market:
2013: Woulfe 370,000 MTU/a 2013: Ormonde 230,000 MTU/a 2013: King Island 120,000 MTU/a, 370,000 MTU/a from 2014 2014: Wolf 345,000 MTU/a 2014: Northcliffe and Vital Metals are additional candidates that could enter the market before the end of 2014.
Regarding CNQ I would like to remind you that we do NOT have a BFS for the hard rock operation yet, something that most of the companies mentioned above *DO* have. Other than the quotes that you cited I don't see anything indicating CNQ will be ready to deliver concentrate from hard rock mining by 2014. Please realize: *ALL* former deadlines have been missed. Half a yer after production was supposed to start we have not even delivered one batch of product yet. So history teaches us we have to take these dates with a grain of salt. It's just a sentence written on paper, an idea with no facts to really back it up.
Please don't misinterpret my messages. I never said there was a "3 year limited supply window". (well, maybe I did two years ago) What I do see though is a 1 year window of opportunity and rather high APT prices that starts closing once Woulfe enters the market. Of course these other companies could experience delays and their timelines could change. But so could CNQ's and we have to take the facts as they are today. The picture for CNQ is not as bright as you want to make us believe, I'm afraid.
CNQ's plant is supposed to produce 50t/month. Why does it take more than 6 weeks to produce 20 tonnes then? What is the current production rate and when are we likely going to reach name place capacity? CNQ didn't answer these questions yet and nobody should become overly excited about the company's prospects before they do.
CNQ Price at posting:
9.8¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
