This morning, I commented;
“Not only did markets rally hard, along with a big rally in POG, but Spanish and Italian bond yields fell very hard. All this indicating quite a strong shift of sentiment over a short period.
Hopefully enough to last at least weeks.
The good thing from a gold sector perspective is no QE3 was needed to push gold up and the US still has it waiting for when its needed- and I'm expecting it will be needed sooner or later.”
This evening I read an update by Clive Maund in which he made some interesting points and in particular a couple of very important points for ABU.
The first is that the POG should now have completed a triple bottom based on what happened in Europe over the weekend.
Prior to the weekend he was concerned that the 1525 support might not hold. The chart he shows now highlights upside risk to around $2400- $2500.
That is roughly in line with my thoughts on where POG should be, based on money supply increases since 1980- without any allowance for almost certain future increases.
His second important point for ABU is that he gives a good argument as to why markets are now likely to rally for a much longer period than just a few weeks that I was hoping for this morning.
This is important for ABU because we are not a producer yet.
I have been expecting a rally through positive news and an increase in our resource base, but this probably depends on reasonably stable markets or at least a stable or rising gold sector and/or POG (unless news from ABU is strong enough to overcome weak markets and ABU goes up anyway).
If Maund is correct and markets now climb the wall of worry for a long period, then we have an excellent back drop perhaps for the entire exploration season and flow of results through to the end of the calendar year.
Even better if markets are good till we make a mining decision and set a date for commencement of production.
A POG anywhere above $2000 (only a matter of time IMO) will not only improve the numbers for OP significantly (not that they need improvement), but it will also bring our multi million ounce Buccaneer resource into play much sooner.
Upside to our sp will be much stronger than the 8-12c that I have been looking for if we see POG hold above $2000 and Buccaneer come into the picture.
Even if we are just talking about the higher grade portions of Buccaneer being fed through a plant predominantly built for OP the upside will be much higher thanks to a greatly increased mine life.
Maund has made me cautiously more optimistic about the market for this year and that makes me more determined to hang in there with ABU and wait for all of this years results to come through.
I also can’t help but feel that one day perhaps this year or next we are going to be surprised by drilling finding a much bigger high grade feeder zone or even a separate zone perhaps up to a km away.
All these veins spread over such a large area now are not likely to be all that there is in my opinion.
A high grade drill hole 1 km to the north of OP and now visible gold 800ms to the south. This gold is spread over a long distance and is still open in all directions and at depth.
Sooner or later I think we might find something much bigger than these veins.
Sure we might not, and if not, or in the mean time, the veins themselves are certainly proving good enough for a much stronger sp.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/26023/gold-market-update
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