Can't deny all of your optimism but there is some glaring issues in the BFS that I can see...
a) A 7 year mine life with gold price at $1700? That's pretty steep, can anyone show me a long term forecast from any of the major banks that keeps prices this high for this long?
A forward curve is not justification for using $1700 unless you are fully hedged against the curve and therefore can guarantee prices will never go down.
b) 8% NPV? What bank is going to lend these guys money at 8%? (thats effectively what that rate is saying their cost of funds is 8%) if they are BHP I might be more comfortable but its a little low.. something more realistic would be 10-12%.
Having a downward sloping price curve and slightly higher cost of funds and perhaps we are getting more realistic. If we like it or not no company can secure 100% debt over their projects... generally 60% is the upper limit so there will still need to be a cap raise for something up around $20-$25-$30m (which is close to the market cap right now).
I'm not saying the number's arent good I am just saying that you need to look at the detail more as the banks that offer to lend them the $$$ certainly will.
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Last
$1.48 |
Change
-0.005(0.34%) |
Mkt cap ! $140.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.48 | $1.48 | $1.48 | $814 | 550 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9693 | $1.37 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.48 | 9457 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9693 | 1.365 |
1 | 3000 | 1.360 |
2 | 1233 | 1.350 |
1 | 10000 | 1.340 |
1 | 1000 | 1.310 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.480 | 9457 | 1 |
1.490 | 5000 | 1 |
1.500 | 85192 | 1 |
1.550 | 5534 | 1 |
1.560 | 5000 | 1 |
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