has the rare earth bubble burst?, page-20

Are you forgetting China export quotas were only half filled last year and going on their recent statement they also effectively reduced smuggling at the same time?

Will be v interesting to see if they publish take off against the first six months quotas. Will be a very effective rebuttal of the WTO complaint if they haven't, and that's where the recent statement was angled.

Note LYC is planning to abandon Ce production at Duncan, I'd suggest partly to get at the good stuff but mainly because they don't think they can sell that additional volume profitably. Moly SH's better pray Xorbex is a winner.

REE are a tiny market for 17 individual products with very different demand/supply profiles and any generic chatter is virtually meaningless. IMO the DoE Critical Metals report (Dec 11 update) is compulsory reading, particularly Ch 4, and Gareth Hatch's follow up article on CREO provides a good summary.

Layer the anticipated production from chart 4.2, and for fun throw in the indicative Duncan production numbers, over the individual element demand/supply graphs and you'll note two things:
Only Dy & Tb show significant shortfall on the more aggressive growth trajectories (let's not forget Dy demand is to a large degree dependent on tax payers continuing to fund wind generation & successful EV rollout).
Lynas's domination of CREO production.

IMO the entire REE market is valued on the basis that China cannot even sell it's "quota", and the "China running out of REO" is nonsense, simply WTO spin. The real value lies in taking CREO to finished product and as Lynas's strategic position becomes more apparent it will be dramatically rerated against its peers.