deepsea metro 1 drillship on schedule, page-9

Yet another great article Dknow, a very important stepping stone on getting Mbawa up and running.

baglimit, the $10 per share figure was a best-case-everything-comes-up-roses valuation from a Hartleys report in April [http://www.pancon.com.au/investor-centre/broker-reports/reports/120412a.pdf]. It gave "a risked valuation of 33cps, with unrisked upside potential of 1,047cps [i.e. $10.47]. This does not include any followup potential at other prospects / leads in each block." This included roughly $4.50 for Namibia, $2.20 for Mbawa, $1.70 for L10A&B (combined) and $1.60 for L6. The report was immediately followed by a CR.

Hartleys updated the best-case unrisked value to $7.72 per share in June [http://www.pancon.com.au/investor-centre/broker-reports/reports/010612.pdf] and gave a 6mth price target of 33c. The unrisked value included roughly $3.40 for Namibia, $1.70 for Mbawa (plus a further 60c for Mbawa South), $0.65 for L10A&B and $1.20 for L6. The reductions appear to be due almost entirely to the dilution from the CR.

The June report gives a current value of 25c per share for Mbawa, so it seems all of the other figures quoted above are not considered relevant to the share price right now. That said, I am very happy to have not paid any extra for the tremendous long-term potential!

So according to our very positive friends at Hartleys, success at Mbawa would eventually get the share price to around $1.70. I agree with ewartd, $1 would be friggin' fantastic. Let's hope Tullow bring their A-game in identifying drilling sites. If success there means they stump up for 5% of our 15% WI at L8 and we get free-carried through further projects then $1 might indeed be where we get to.