CAI 0.00% 10.5¢ calidus resources limited

today tonight!!!!, page-42

  1. 7,746 Posts.
    It's a spec stock. The risks and negatives have always been there. The main exception is the funding risk increases the lower the market cap falls. I generally focus too much on the negatives but only sell when the positives are outweighted by the negatives. It's hard to know where we are in that regard. Not cheap, but certainly not overpriced either.

    The reward part of the equation is a big unknown. A lot of hope is pinned on a license deal and/or Tripeptofen and or OBJ pain patch.

    You can break them down and analyse the prospects, but it's pure guesswork. Eg:

    1. Thermalife - Original distribution deal with Crossmark was finalised in Feb 2011. So 15months after launch, what do we have? About 500 stores and $30k of accumulated sales. But growing. Much of the initial hope has now faded. Peolpe have lowered their expectations.

    2. License deal - Well this could be more than one thing. It could be a license to sell Thermalife overseas. For that a partner would want more evidence of success imo.

    Or it could be refering to Tripeptofen and licensing the right to further research the compound and use it in the product of your choice. Again, this talk has been around for years.

    3. Tripeptofen - We haven't actually isolated the compound. Even when we do, you have to ask yourself how different will it be to the parent Nutracel compound. If Thermaliffe fails, does that mean nutracel isn't accepted by the market or potentential partners?

    And if Thermalife/Nutracel is indeed concidered a failure, then what hope does that give the related Tripeptofen compound?

    4. OBJ pain patch - Southoz posted on the OBJ thread about the likelyhood of this, or more importantly the timeframe and dollars required. It could happen but how much dilution between now and then? And as point 3 asks, will the market accept it or is it too similar to Thermalife?

    I feel at this point in time, we are focusing on JP's $150k purchase at 0.5c as the glimmer of hope we need. Not sure how astute that is. You know from your own experience as major shareholder and director of INT, that directors buy for many reasons like to build market confidence. Or sometimes they simply get it wrong.

    TT can get us much needed exposure. So the light is still on and like all spec stocks, things can change rapidly in either direction. I look forward to waking up one day to a major announcement and re-rating.
 
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