Wishing you all the best with whichever road you choose to travel. From a s/term perspective, given the way our crazy market works, you have a difficult decision, imo.
Be that as it may, as you have shared your thoughts in regards to selling your OBJ holdings in return for ANP shares to all on the OBJ thread, I believe I have the right to offer my opinion, in favor of holding OBJ - but as always, take this with a grain of salt.
My opinion could be summed up in the following two paragraphs... but that just wouldn't be like me... ;)
"The process of discovering and developing new medicines and vaccines is long and expensive and requires innovation and creativity. Industry development times are typically 10–15 years for new medicines and vaccines, with costs of up to £1 billion for each approved product. The R&D process often involves thousands of patients in trials to investigate the safety and efficacy of potential new treatments.
Consumer Healthcare relies on product innovation, brand loyalty and trademark protection to be competitive and create value. Development timelines for new consumer healthcare products are significantly shorter than for pharmaceuticals and vaccines and the pace of innovation is rapid. The application of science and consumer insights are key to driving successful product innovation for consumer brands."
On June 29, ANP announced the commencement of licensing negotiations after stating they have received a proposal from a Pharmaceutical company, and the market didn't react, nor was there any change to the sp post session day two following that announcement. However, 6 days on and the sp has increased + 39% = D/traders + Isis share price movement, Imo.
As you also mentioned BLT who yesterday announced the signing of a worldwide exclusive license agreement with Genable Technologies of Ireland, and again our market showed absolutely no interest. This is not to suggest that BLT will follow the ANP run, because I doubt it will. From a long term perspective however, what I did like about the general content of Benitec's announcement was that it remained conservative. For example it only noted that Genable was a privately held small biotech company based in Dublin. Although it cited the company was backed by venture capital, BLT omitted all details relating to it being financed by Fountain Healthcare Partners, which is $10 billion dollar Elan Corp’s New York based corporate venture capital group.
In regards to your thoughts about parking BLT or OBJ funds into ANP, it's always worth keeping an eye on the after-hours auction as one indicator - a quick look at ANP's after hours auction yesterday told me that approx 4m were dumped into 2.5c @ 4.10pm - The stock was already in overbought territory before yesterday, so I would expect to see some consolidation if the upward trend was to continue?
On the theme of genomics and the discovery of promising antisense technology, which ANP have in-licensed from Isis I would also encourage you to keep a close eye on this ISIS Pharmaceuticals share price action which I believe the d/traders will be taking their lead from... Isis was sold down last night - another indicator.
As pretty as the Isis picture has been looking for ANP traders over the last few days, Isis isn't ANP, just as GSK aren't OBJ or P&G aren't OBJ, and nor is 3M, OBJ - and the difference is OBJ management are not promoting GSK, P&G or 3M's developments as if they were OBJ's - In fact I think it's fair to say that OBJ are not even promoting the JV and collaborative developments that are related to OBJ.
Why? That's simple, although I appreciate that this is no comfort for those of us who have finalized our accumulation strategies in anticipation for what lay ahead - It's been said before - OBJ don't need to raise any capital.
If you recall ANP announced the signing of a term sheet agreement back in February to form a Joint Venture with a Chinese mob called TJAB - coincidentally, this was released just before announcing the placement and SPP to fund phII clinical trials.
I came under fire from ANP loyalists on the OBJ thread for making those comments at the time, but as of 10 days ago have now been vindicated. As announced by ANP, this was to be executed by 1 July 2012 - Imo, no matter how one wishes to see this, there is no longer any formal agreement in place between ANP and TJAB.
Going back to the subject of company PR promotions - ANP beats OBJ hands down - no one can argue this, however going by Glyn's first ever 12 month time-frame speculation from November 25, 2011 many of us here have probably executed our investment plans over this past 8 months based on that speculation (I did) - By my watch this gives us about a 4 month window remaining to anticipate OBJ's first material announcement in the form of a licensing agreement which I would expect to arrive on any one of the next 90 trading days. On that note it is also worth remembering that the comment expressed was that he hoped, "to have at least one licensing agreement in place"
On May 30 of this year ANP announced that Isis and Genzyme's filing for a new drug application, otherwise referred to as an NDA, for the drug Mipomersen, indicated for the treatment of patients with HoFH, had been accepted by the FDA, however imho, promoting other companies drug developments creates both pro's and con's. It can be useful promoting all the pros in regards to Isis and Genzyme's progression with Mipomerson (brand name Kynamro) while everything is looking fine and dandy, but as this development has nothing to do with ANP, if things turn pear shaped, ANP have already dug and prepared its own grave.
If the FDA decide against granting approval to Isis and Genzyme for Mipomerson this year, it's going to serve a significant blow to ANP as they have been heavily promoting this development as the model child to their own antisense technology programs for a long time now.
Imho, the cons are just to big to ignore on two points alone which have been neglected in ANP announcements:
1. The competition: Lomitapide (microsomal triglyceride protein inhibitor) 2. Poor efficacy and patient compliance
As part of the OBJ hc family I ask that those here holding both stocks use the following information at your own discretion - I am no expert on antisense technology but the following research forms part of my decision to invest in OBJ over ANP - I have no intention of upsetting ANP holders and therefore have no interest in sharing this on the ANP thread.
Let me substantiate:
Mipromersen has a January 29, 2013, PDUFA date and Lomitapide (Isis competition) has a December 29, 2012, PDUFA date.
Both of these drugs are currently under review by the FDA for the treatment of patients with "uncontrollably" high cholesterol levels (in basic terms).
The following abstract was sourced from survey results received by lipidologists only 10 days ago in regards to these two competing applications. The full survey can be downloaded from the LifeSci Advisors website here.. The survey was conducted to get a better understanding of the market size of this orphan indication and to make better potential sales estimates.
The respondents view lomitapide as more efficacious than mipomersen—44% view lomitapide as very efficacious, compared with 13% for mipomersen; 51% view lomitapide as moderately efficacious, compared with 74% for mipomersen; 5% view lomitapide as minimally efficacious, compared with 13% for mipomersen.
Regarding safety, only 3% of the respondents consider lomitapide very safe, compared with 5% for mipomersen. 62% consider lomitapide moderately safe, compared with 41% for mipomersen. 36% consider lomitapide questionably safe, compared with 54% for mipomersen. A requirement for liver monitoring and concerns over fatty liver would limit these drugs' use as reported by 23% of the respondents. 54% responders reported that the use of both agents would be somewhat limited due to these concerns, and 23% report that these issues would not pose a limitation on their use.
The long and the short of it is that (based on this survey) doctors may prefer to prescribe lomitapide, which is an oral formulation over mipomersenm, a weekly injection. Efficacy and patient compliance also appear in favor of Lomitapide.
In hindsight what price would we be looking at today if OBJ had heavily promoted the Novamin technology which was acquired by GlaxoSmithKline in a confidential deal in 2009 for $135 million, which was made official in May 2010, after the information was leaked in a financial report.
NovaMin is the brand name of a particulate bioactive glass that is used in dental care products for Remineralisation of teeth
We know that OBJ's technology enhances the remineralization of teeth, as the company reported this to the market in the 2010 AGM Presentation - only six months before signing an Exclusive Collaborative Development Agreement with GSK for the development of new Oral Heathcare products.
Why haven't OBJ promoted the Novamin story to increase s/holder value? 1. They don't need to raise any capital 2. GSK would not grant permission for OBJ to promote the Novamin story because a) The Novamin story was confidential, and b) The OBJ/GSK story remains confidential
Why would GSK demand such strict confidentiality surrounding its collaboration with OBJ? 1. Because it would be commercially sensitive to GSK's competition, just like the $135m dollar Novamin "tooth remineralization" technology that OBJ might indeed be enhancing - making more effective - making an existing $135 million dollar technology more competitive and more profitable to GSK's bottom line...
What about OBJ promoting innovative technologies being developed by 'other' companies where "consumer energy is captured and redirected to achieve new levels of product performance..." - just like Unilever's "Motionsense" technology...
Not to take any thoughts away from the big players, but what about our little sister company, which is reporting low sales of its 'existing' ThermaLife product launched back in 2011, and as many on the PNO threads keep reminding people, they have no cash...?
However, contrary that information, some pharmacists have just begun noting a very different story emerging...
09 July 2012 “Something IS happening... This is massive for the company. I have seen many TV exposures in my time and the interest they generate when the product is "NEW". There are some that go on to be household names... I am getting good feedback on its effectiveness. The target audience is huge! It has a uniqueness that should generate significant interest. They have put significant effort into marketing this... Point of sale material is top class for such a small company with one product. Compared to other companies with one/two products who usually just give us some leaflets, this is an A class effort! Counter pads... stickers... shelf wobblers... posters... leaflets, and excellent sample size product.” - Source - Doogs
"6 million performance rights to vest subject to the satisfaction of the regulatory requirements necessary for the Company to offer a product of its own design and development to the market either directly or through partners (Milestone 2)..." hmmm
50 more reasons to hold OBJ
- Partner funded programs - Low Cash Burn Rate - MD Licensing speculation - P&G Exclusive JDA for Beauty Care products - GSK Exclusive Collaboration Development for Oral Care products - 3M remains a Major Collaborator - FMCG #1 Strategic Alliance Negotiations - FMCG #2 Development Discussions - Major US Pharma multi-product discussions - US Patent Granted for Dermaportation technology - Musculoskeletal project moved to consumer testing in Europe - Developed a new Cosmetic Pod based delivery system - No signs of desperation in announcements - The Patent Cliff - The Aging Patient Population - Working with some of the world’s experts in transdermal research - Returning statistically and commercially significant results - Integrated ETP technology substantially enhances drug delivery over micro-needles alone - Magnetic Fields following the inverse square law - Diamagnetics act on electron pairs - Magnetic Fields do not interact chemically - Each array is potentially unique and patentable - No potential for inducting pain or other adverse reaction - Product performance enhancement thorough physical rather than chemical science - Technology can be incorporated into an almost infinite number of products - Low regulatory barriers - Down brand or branding potential - New market categories - Global markets - Unmet medical needs - Economics - Environmental sustainabilty - Low cost, Good shelf-life, Single use or Re-usable - Opportunity for reduced active levels - Exhaustible reservoir potential - Adaptable Format - Patches, strips, wipes, applicators, and devices - Active Compatibility - Wide range of molecules and compounds - Chemically non-invasive - Engineered Delivery Profiles - Release and Penetration Speed - Depth of penetration - Proprietary technology platform - Opportunities for application specific patents - Residual drug issues with existing transdermal technologies - Lower Regulatory Risk Factor - Drug Discovery Vs Drug Delivery - Generics rise sparking delivery technology need - Additional commercial and collaboration discussions with international partners across multiple product development sectors
All the best with your decision, Aptayl
I sincerely hope that if you do decide to do the switch from OBJ to ANP, and back to OBJ again, that your timing is perfect - and then I'm sure you'll be the envy of many here. GL
Since October 25, 2011, consumer health has slipped under the radar with regards to the announced JDA Agreement with P&G for consumer health and beauty care... I wonder why...?
To Our Valued External Business Partners: "P&G and Teva Pharmaceuticals have completed their deal to form a partnership in consumer health care. The companies are creating a new business model by bringing together both companies’ over-the counter (OTC) products and complementary capabilities to accelerate growth.The companies are in process of completing a joint global sourcing study to determine the best scenario for the supply of all of the remaining OTC business and the structure of all remaining Product Supply capabilities. We ask for your utmost support to make this partnership a success for all of us. There are many details to be worked out over the coming months on how the JV will affect the materials and services supplied for these OTC products. We will communicate additional updates as soon as it is practical to do so. - To Our Valued External Business Partners - P&G - November 2011
P&G's Masterstroke: The Teva Deal November 20, 2011 by Donald Riker, PhD P&G and Teva Pharma formed a strategic healthcare joint venture on Nov 3, 2011. In one masterstroke P&G has created synergies in multiple dimensions and has forged a new business model that should be the envy of the consumer healthcare industry.This strategic vision of complementary global competencies far outdistances the piecework roll up model and the serial one-off acquisitions we are so use to seeing. This deal is unlike any deal in consumer healthcare before it." - OTC Product News - 20/11/2012
OBJ Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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