re:amex, page-11

POO rise not surprising. We discussed a number of factors that would likely see POO push substancially higher in H2 and that seems to be exactly what is now happening. Embargo on Iran starting to bite. Syria drags on with the US unwilling to tackle it in an election year and Europe desparate not to get involved and suffer the millitary expense.

US elections coming up and then the political blindfold comes off and the elected president is determined to take a stand and show his strength as all new presidents do. Israel is being very quiet and that is generally a sign that they have been given a timeframe to placate them. Big question is it before or after xmas.

Chinas growth slowing coupled with recession in Europe and very slow growth in the US is keeping POO under control, yet despite these major forces pulling it down it is still pushing $90 and trending upwards. The Saudis are over producing in order to keep the price lower and that doesn't seem to be able to hold it down either. The political will to keep it low also dries up after the election I suspect as the Saudis have no interest in long term lower prices, just lower long enough to keep it from being a political issue during the election of their ally.

If they can't keep POO below $90 with all these factors working to keep it low then imagine what will happen to POO when the cycle turns.