sentiment , page-21

I agree it has been disappointing to date but still, IMO one must look at the situation in its entireity including the positive and the negative aspects. This is my take on the situation. Happy to hear alternative opinions. IMO the primary objective and most important outcome on completion of this program was to achieve sufficient gas to satisfy requirements for the expected GSA which will guarantee a market and revenue and profits for the company. The facts are that even though time has blown out by 60 days and at extra cost, a discovery is secured and 1/3 of required gas is locked in and 2nd well is about to kick off. With the experience gained from the first well it is reasonable to expect there will be a focus on being extra efficient to make up time and money and regain market confidence in their ability to deliver the project. Time will tell. I'm expecting the upcoming investor preso mentioned on the phone conferenece will outline the newly discovered gas prospectivity and mention a revised program to drill an extra well in the Gazelle zone with current funding to satisfy the GSA in a timely manner. My opinion only. A derisked Gazelle zone with sufficient gas to satisfy GSA is worth around .46 cents per share according to broker guidance from memory. Please correct me if this figure is off mark. That part is all still positive IMO.

Now the negative IMO. Obviously the Condor target was to help facilitate the GSA requirements and create a surplus which could be sold into the robust market that exists for gas in the region above and beyond the quantities of gas outlined in the GSA conditions. Secondly most know that Chouette is a high impact exploration target 10 kms away that is intended to be tied into Gazelle hub infrastructure in the future. These 2 targets will still apparently have their chance, but under a different program with different funding in the near future it seems. Whatever funding arrangement is employed, one would guess it will on the back of success at Gazelle and success at Condor and Chouette will be value accredative. The original guidance quoted large potential rerating figures of over a dollar per share for a Condor discovery and a Chouette discovery combined, over and above the aforementioned .46 cents per share for success at Gazelle. To reiterate the Condor and Chouette prospectivity still exists, but appears to be deferred temporarily in preference to establishing what appears to be the most important at this stage being an increased program scope at Gazelle. Given the situation I personally agree that this would be a sensible strategy, if this eventuates as part of the new program. Also Capex requirements are potentially much less now as management have indicated preference to a reduced capex program to enable gas supply for GSA in the first instance and secure revenues more quickly and easily. Extra funding or farm in of a partner was always part of the stategy at completion of this program so that is no surprise. The difference is a fully blown capex development originally mentioned at completion of this program including oil production will likely give way to a phased capex development exploiting gas only. The reason is obviously that the fully blown capex program would have been much more possible with an extra $1.00 plus added to the SP with derisking of Condor and Chouette if it was to occur during this program.

What I would like to see now is for RIA to secure a farm in partner or two not necessarily for the Gazelle hub development, but for development of other highly prospective areas of C1-202 on a free carried basis for RIA. May as well exploit other areas at minimal cost and increase potential sources of revenue concurrently for minimal cost.

There is still the possibility of Accra as well which should add value to SP according to broker guidance if and when it is announced. So although am disappointed with the progress to date and although I have been reducing my original large position since the mid thirties, I am still mindful of a potential rerating as Gazelle gas becomes more derisked. Not trying to foster false hope. Just my opinion. DYOR