PEN 2.25% 8.7¢ peninsula energy limited

uranium sleeping beauties, page-21

  1. 5,650 Posts.
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    Hi There I am new to this stock and a bit of a newby on uranium - However on the question of finance I can offer this opinion.

    Have invested in a number of brown or even Greenfield's project style companies and almost all of them overstate the progress on project financing.

    Its easy to see how they get into that position - having been on the other side of the desk as well.

    Financiers are obviously going to want an invite to the party at the time when finance can be approved so few if any will rule it out but will give an indication about what they would need to put the proposal forward for approval. What is common is eliminating those projects that you would not consider e.g. Sovereign risk, areas the bank wont invest in , structures they wont approve etc. After that however it is common to write a letter as an expression of interest setting out what is required to take it further and that gets followed up with regular meetings to review the situation. Rates change , economic climates change the project becomes more or less viable.

    Its my opinion and I stress opinion that both parties often hear what they want to hear in the conversation at this time as its a courtship phase. Things do progress but this is not the time for killing or approving a credit line.

    I think that the companies report factually that its progressing well but in reality its not at that stage when it can either be approved or rejected or even tabled at a committee. The reality is that things do look good until it hits the hard facts time. So I can understand that at some point in the process it gets put up subject to a number of normal caveats - operating licence , bonds etc. That's when the rubber hits the road or its goes through.

    I think shareholders want to see the statement that financing is progressing but in reality having researched this project I think personally its still some way off having the financier putting it to a credit committee.

    If the company did not say financing is progressing well than in fact it would be a negative to many potential investors.

    I have invested in the full knowledge that we are 18 to 24 months away from the exciting period and that anything is possible even the need for a CR.

    I think that management are in discussions about finance but that approval is some time away or rejection and back to drawing board.

    I think though that the upside must be 3 to 4 times current price - in order to service the risk with the depressed prices and the risk that the resource is great but the timing is off and it does not get funded or licence approval (small as that risk may be)has this share currently fairly priced.

    Must say I think the South African prospect could be good and I think its easier to persuade a government like the ANC with elections only in 2014 that this needs to get off the ground - The Karoo is sparsely populated as well.

    So I am in for those reasons.

 
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