question for holders about price after tol

When the TOL is issued, one of two things will happen to Lynas's share price:

1) The stock will gap up substantially, but will then level out and not rise much further, or possibly retrace.

2) The stock will gap up substantially, and will then continue to rise strongly over the following weeks.

Is the general consensus that outcome (1) or (2) is more likely?

The reason I ask is this:

If you anticipate outcome (1) occuring, will you sell out on the day of the announcement?

If you anticipate outcome (2) occuring, why is there the fear of 'missing out' if you sold now and waited for the news? If scenario two played out, there would be plenty of gains to be made by taking the safer option and waiting for the TOL to be issued, rather than taking the risk and holding throughout delay after delay amidst quite a sombre market?

Interested in your thoughts.