why tol will be issued without warning, page-13

Here is what Wilson HTM has to say in their latest analysis (1/0/2012) regarding the issue of TOL:

>>Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) may be delayed until post election. We have pushed back our TOL issuance expected date from August 2012 to January 2013 in line with our Malaysian Strategy Team's expectation of a possible November election, at the earliest. Our base case is for the current government to remain in power with a c.60%
majority and therefore approval for LYC's plant will ultimately be granted. We believe the stock will spike with a TOL announcement but we are cautious in the short term with (1) licence uncertainty; (2) funding implications from further delays and; (3) ramp-up risk given the complexity of the plant. We have reduced our PT from $1.80/sh to $1.25/sh on TOL delays but retain a BUY seeing value over the next 12
months.<<

There are a few things to consider when interpreting this analysis.
Wilson HTM is only a small broker and receives a lot of their research from Deutsche. No way that Wilson HTM have their own "Malaysian Strategy Team", especially in their current financial situation. And if, how strong would that team be? I personally believe that this comes straight from Deutsche. Is that what the big guys are thinking? Can anyone provide latest analysis of Deutsche on LYC?

I truely believe that TOL will be issued before election and very soon. Politically, any further delay would play into the hands of the opposition that the plant might not be safe after all. Otherwise why the hold-up? The sooner the plant is running, the sooner can be proven that it is safe. Najib must know that the LYC saga has huge implications for future foreign investments/projects. His delay tactics only dig him deeper into the hole.

Issue TOL in August.
Concentrate arrives in September.
First product in November.