Schnuctzel, I was myself also firmly in the camp of TOL before the election for teh same reasons as you: TOL would issue, Lynas would prove its safe, the Opposition look like dunces and elections away.
I am no longer in that camp though. The only way that could happen is if the elections were deferred as late as possible next year, given that anything less wont give Lynas enough time to get the plant fully operational.
The pundits are saying that an election is likely late September early October. Najib just gave out a massive handout to his public servants. Go to any blogs about the Malaysan elections (filtering out any Lynas material) and you can see that they are all primed to go. Now , if it takes 6 weeks to get ore to first feed that takes us to mid September, which would be about when an election would be called. I cant see them doing that somehow.
If they had planned to demonstrate the safety of the TOL before the elections, they would have issued the TOL as quickly as possible weeks ago. They didnt.
It seems to me (and I accept I could be wrong) the only rational explanation for the delay in the TOL over the last few weeks is that Najib does not want it issued before the election. It doesnt make a lot of sense otherwise.
If the TOL issues in the next week or so that's great and I will eat humble pie, but on the facts befor eus today and on the basis of what Nick has said (and I listened very carefully for this very reason) I think it will be delayed.
If it is then there will be a lot of short term volitility in the SP. Mitta has said this several times, but investors can get protection from any fall in the SP. Personally, I would be very carefully considering it..soonish.
LYC Price at posting:
82.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)