second bite at the cherry, page-5

Stockslut,

You are certainly right about a stock at 5.4c having leverage. If it goes up 2.7c, it's increased 50%. But don’t forget that, similarly, if it goes down 2.7c, it has decreased 50%! Of course the possibility of downside is not a concern if you are super-confident that it is more likely to go up, as you seem to think. That’s fair enough, I suppose, as you would know more of what's happening with TIR than I. Enlighten me: is TIR sure to increase? My semi-informed guess is that at this point, TIR could go either way – but that's your call: if you want to roll the dice and play for leverage, good luck to you.

You are also quite right that the market has basically ignored FXR in recent times (though it has been starting to notice over the last month). The former management regime were doing some questionable deals (e.g. Cape Lambert iron ore), and we FXR holders have since been punished for their attempted actions. Still, they are now gone, and the new regime seem pretty good, and are focusing on current operations at Radio Hill, and getting their surrounding core nickel and copper projects off the ground. A desperate sales pitch, you say? Hardly! I’ll admit to being frustrated with the stock, but I know that the market will come around and will re-rate it eventually. If you read my post, then you will have seen some numbers that I dug up that compared FXR’s operations favourably with JBM before its market re-rating, meaning any fair-value market re-rating would likely take FXR up an order of magnitude. Just how likely is that? Quite reasonably so, I’d think, given the numbers. When will it happen? I don’t know; hence my frustration! At this point, it seems to be issues of confidence, and recognition. People got hurt by the former regime, and are just being overly cautious with the new regime. Because of that, analysts probably haven’t done and passed on to their clients the same sort of calcs that I did, and the market therefore generally don’t know or appreciate the value that FXR is sitting on.

Let’s do a little bare-bones risk analysis. I don’t know TIR as well as you do, so please advise me (with supporting evidence, please) what to put in the blanks here:

What’s the likelihood FXR will increase 50% from 38c to 57c? Very good
What’s the likelihood FXR will decrease 50% from 38c to 19c? Negligible
What’s the likelihood TIR will increase 50% from 5.4c to 8.1c? ____??____
What’s the likelihood TIR will decrease 50% from 5.4c to 2.7c? ____??____

But, as I said before, none of us are locked in to investing in one stock only. I’m not posting with the intention of convincing you to dump TIR. With the history that TIR has with the projects, I just thought you might be able to recognize the opportunity at FXR, and would be interested in, and appreciative of, the tip. As they say: “Whatever”!

Oh, and who’s Pedrof? I’ve got no idea, other than “another FXR holder”. Just someone that asked a question about TIR’s Bioheap technology, which I answered.

Nomen Nescio