Ville,
Good post. Some comments.
If we assume that SFR has a t/o premium in it due to OZL's holding, then if OZL does not sell and go after RXM, the SFR sp could drop (WPL had a BHP premium until BHP bought shale gas - that premium was 33%). A SFR sale may indicate that we are going after RXM and RXM's sp might rise heaps.
Personally I would go after RXM first, and then sell down SFR, rather than the other way round. OZL does not need the SFR funds immediately, adding RXM to OZL's portfolio and then either selling the SFR shares or distributing to existing shareholders would, IMO, be a good option.
I agree that a judicious t/o of RXM will probably not hurt the OZL sp. IMO, OZL's sp will not rise until analysts see the money being spent and they can put the CAPEX and production into their spreadsheets.
HT1
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