zia's art of saying nothing tuesday, page-16

I watched Inside Business the other week on ABC and Marcus Padley, who I love, was so pessimistic it was hard to believe he was in the stock market game.

Who ever heard of a pessimistic broker?

He made the point about us having a 33 year bull market (1974-2007)and that meant things would be bad for decades.

There is a number of ways of looking at this period.

Firstly, the observation was made by someone that bears are about 1/3rd of bulls so on that basis it suggests a bear for 11 years or into 2018.

We could redefine the period a little.

1932 low up into 1966 or 34 years.

1966 sideways into 1983 (US) or 17 years.

1983 up into 2000 or 17 years.

These 17 or 34 year periods can probably be looked at as multiples of Armstrongs 8.6 year periods.

So that can give 17 years down into 2017.

OK so 2017/18 probably ends a bear.

My view is the worst may be over as of the last low.

A low in July next year is probably higher for the local market.

The US may have a late 2014 low, higher or not.

2015 will be a great year at least for the first 3/4ths.

Yes, the usual late 2017/early 2018 may be nasty to finish the period.

And there are some residuals that suggest all negatives don't vanish till 2020ish.