takeover and aquisitions , page-73

Cheers, HT1. I don't hold MNC, so no skin off my nose. Always enjoy your opinion and posts, hence the question to you.

Here is one of the AFR articles on MNC, from August, 2011:

http://tools.afr.com/viewer.aspx?ATL://31115bca-bcd5-11e0-ac3f-2f51adb5d719§ion=tools

It said UBS had been appointed defence advisors as suitors would be on the prowl, that it would cost $3b to develop Los Calatos, but if it did get taken over, it would be by the likes of XStrata, Glencore or Vale. The article said suitors would snoop in about a year.

That takes us up to about now. Share price August, 2011: about 20c; share price August 2012: 8.5c.

Yeah, the grades, well, OZL would want good grades, and not too much capex to crimp the cash OZL has.

I still look at IVA for OZL. IVA is now at multi-year lows, is in production for some of its assets, but has been hugely loss-making. It might be considered "cum-capital raising", as per its strategic review. The last ANN looks like an advertisement to me- of what a suitor would get if it took IVA over. IVA is now at 40c, but was $2 five months ago. It has a market cap now of $225m, but was $1.12b five months ago. IVA is also pretty well doing a sales process for its assets. Maybe OZL would pick up something there.

Whatever OZL does, it will need to be careful about capex for any purchases now (for the moment- probably not forever). After doing a share buyback, OZL certainly doesn't want to have to issue new shares, negating any benefit the buy back may have had.