sdl accepts revised hanlong offer of 45c a sha, page-80

Haemitite, yes agreed. If HL walked, the SP would likely be around 10 cents away at best. 25 - 35 - 45. I suspect that it could get a lot worse IF the IO price starts drifting to the mean of $70 US. The likelihood being that the resource stays in the ground as it is not worth capex development when the predators can pick through the carcass of the marginal producers. For some reason, there is a feeling among some that SDL should let HL walk as it has the resource in the ground and will be ok. IMO that is a big assumption.

I think 45 is a big tick in the absence of another bid.
If it is worth more, then let the bidders come. They have a few months.
Walk away - not an option. Downside could be an SP in single figures if the resource is left in the ground for years. Imagine SDL trying to cap raise in that environment.

Investment is about probabilities.

Probability of HL completing the offer - 50/50.
Probability of a counter bid - possible but not probable.
Probability of SP dropping at least the upside from 36 - 45 to the downside 36 - 27 or worse, on non completion of deal - reasonable
Probability that the project is not developed for many years if deal falls over - reasonable. SP???