fact or fiction, page-28

We know that with Heron and Gurame the resource is there and therefore the COS is significantly higher. There was a high expectation of farming out Gurame (which could still happen) but to date the offers received haven’t met managements criteria for acceptance. This was disappointing for some but has pleased other posters, and you can see why.

Given the strong data MEO have on Gurame and the results from the 6 wells drilled to date you could imagine the uproar from some posters upon success in less than 3 months time questioning why meo gave away 50% when they knew what an outstanding prospect Gurame was.

And theres the reason why a farmout hasn’t occurred yet, meo wanted exactly what they know it to be worth to be reflected in the deal, the important factor that people seem to be missing is that the rig is set for early Oct. Sure meo could drag on negotiations seeking what they want. But then we might not be drilling until March 2013, this way we are drilling now and have all the upside to ourselves.

There was also some disappointment with the Ananke drill, but the thing is we didn’t spend a cent on it.
Unfortunately we are not privy to the results of Ananke but just because Ananke isn’t commercial it doesn’t mean that Maxwell wouldn’t be.
WPL have made it quite clear that they will be in discussions regarding the expansion of Pluto and to rebuild their exploration portfolio. WPL have dwindling reserves and they need to act, and after fully evaluating Ananke there may still be a big upside to MEO.

Now this is where I reckon it gets interesting, sooner or later, cost effectiveness and synergies of taking over a company become over whelming. In WPL’s case who need to aggressively increase their exploration portfolio they could spend hundreds of millions farming into permits such as WA-361, WA-360 and even WA-454 or they make an offer for the whole company. Now those permits alone probably aren’t enough for a takeover but then again we don’t know what leads Ananke will show for the 10tcf prospect of Maxwell.

But as ortstock has being saying the most attractive asset at meo is of course Tassie Shoal. And that’s why when Heron South is a success the SP won’t just leap over our recent high of 38c, it will smash it.

Tassie Shoal has so many economical benefits its unbelievable, first of all it would save $3b compared to building similar facility’s.
Then we have the economical benefits due to its location and saving on transportation costs not to mention that all the plans and approvals are complete, something that any company starting from scratch would absolutely dread and probably wouldn’t have a chance of getting the tick of approval from this green conscious world. There are a lot of companies with some big gas fields around TS who need TS.

In meo’s case who have great permits and prospects and can save billions of dollars there would certainly be companies taking a serious look.
Of course ENI have committed so much to meo and are a big part of their plans, so anyone looking at meo would have to be prepared for counter bids. I know a lot of punters would hate to see a takeover as it would prevent meo reaching its full potential but I think over the next 6 months it is a big possibility.
Ago was long considered a takeover target by Rio not because of its iron ore but because of its port facility, sometimes its not that obvious (such as gas) that makes a company valuable. Now I’m not an expert in M&A, so I’m more than happy to hear thoughts of others on this.

Oh and yes im still accumulating shares at this price, those that sold didn't want to hold into results of Heron.
I certainly do.