bell potters no 1 biotech, page-38

OK - also, in your speak.

A line of 500 people waiting to throw a ping pong ball into a coffee mug from 10m away.
In the past, statistically, only 3 out of every 500 were successful, therefore it is likely that only between 2-4 people of the next 500 will succeed.
However, the second group has learnt.
We have moved the mug closer to 5m, we have moved everyone inside to avoid impact of the wind and I recruited the entire NBA league to make up the next five hundred people and they have been practicing for 4 weeks 8 hrs a day.
We can compare our results to that of the previous group, but you won't know how many will succeed as in each group of 500 people the parameters change.
The next 500 people could be throwing from 1m and the mug may be a bucket or may be throwing a feather into an egg cup from 20m.
Assess each case on it's own merits taking into consideration all the fundamentals.