value comparison, page-37

Pingu, thanks again for the discussion.

Firstly, I assure you that I do hold. I don't know why would would question that to be honest. As with many here, I've been burnt and am disappointed with this stock, but I'm attempting to understand and learn from my mistake.

This is basically the first ever stock purchase I have made "on my own". I basically got caught up in the hype - as I'm sure many here have also - and I'm hoping to at least identify where I went wrong... hence why I'm trying to generate some objective discussion about the company. If I knew then what I know now, I probably wouldn't have bought. Lesson #1 learnt. DYOR... or in my case... just do at least some research. ;-)

Secondly, no, I'm not mad. I'm not sure if prices will remain static for the next two years, but let's not lose sight of the fact that for the last 4 years, prices have remained relatively static. A quick look at the spot price graph tells you they have traded (mostly) between $40/lb and $60/lb since mid-2008. And 60/lb just won't cut it for PEN.

I am of course encouraged by the announcement of contracts in the low 60s and this is why I continue to hold (rather than cut my significant losses and run). Like all of us holders I pray that all these predictions of U prices going up 50%+ in the next few years are correct. Unfortunately it is the financers (or consumers) who need to be convinced if we want some money to build our mine.

However, I am also entirely concerned that I may in fact be "half way correct" and this (the lacklustre uranium price) is in fact the reason financing is an issue. That along with our unproven resource. If the "looming" shortage everyone is talking about is in fact looming, it concerns me that the price has remained static (and well below what PEN requires for a feasible mine) for the last four years. I will ask you this... Why is the market so slow to react to this looming shortage, and what will be the catalyst for such a major positive reaction?

I take with a large grain of salt analyst reports from energy companies predicting fast growing energy demand (but I will read that from BP - thanks). This doesn't mean I don't believe there will be higher demand in the future (this is another reason I am in an energy stock in the first place). I have also seen recent figures from the likes of JP morgan predicting prices in the next year or two up around $70/lb (another reason I am in a uranium stock), but these guys are overweight on stocks like cameco, so it is in their best interest to promote high prices (and their stocks). They could be right, they could be wrong. I'm fingers crossed they are right... but the market is (and has for some time) still saying otherwise