Hi kanga,
I attended the Melbourne meeting but I don't think anything new was said that was not already covered by yourself, jessie, reiner, cgt, leo etc (apologies if I have missed anyone).
Some of my notes:
*HRV Phase III will involve reversal of end points ie. Asthma control will be primary and severity of cold will be secondary.
*Don't want to target common cold as FDA won't approve (has occurred with Pleconaril passing Phase III but FDA rejected on pharmacoeconomics). Most people clear HRV within 2-4 days compared to asthmatics 10+ days.
*Biota just received results so starting to attract interest for HRV. Will take 6-18 months to achieve a deal for HRV (closer to the 18 months according to PC).
*Possible deal metrics for HRV (at Phase II):
$50-$80m upfront
low double digit royalties
*I think PC stated Biota not willing to fund Phase III, commercial partner should decide how Phase III to be conducted.
*The market for HRV treating asthma varies from $200m to $8b.
*RSV cost $300 - $500 compared to current product in market $3,000
*HCV - Biota talking to interested parties (wouldn't divulge who they were - I tried :)
*Gyrase - Biota's product most advanced (apparently it acts in 2 ways so bacteria has to do the same which is unlikely) and as cgt mentioned, on Pfizer's lead list.
*LANI - 12 staff (around regulatory/approval area) to fill for BARDA contract.
*US stockpile 81m which is 25% of US population, conservative 33% split LANI/Relenza/Tamiflu but with CDC's view on Tamiflu, may be 50/50 (I'm assuming the 50/50 is LANI/Tamiflu but please correct me if I'm wrong).
*Blackout period was for 85% of 2012 so that is why they could not purchase shares.
*Dual listing compliance costs about $350k (I personally think it would be worth bearing this cost but I will vote for pure NASDAQ listing after attending the meeting).
As always, please DYOR and hopefully some may be able to correct/flesh out my points.
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