If iron really does move to a higher volume lower price market, Vale is the company most likely to capture that. My fear is we move to a lower price lower volume market. And that, deep down, iron ore execs know that but are keeping shtum.
My suspicion is that things aren't that bad and in a year's time the price will have stabilised around $1. So if they just fork over a mill to hold the contract I'd actually be well pleased.
(Of course as well as not being good for AVB it wouldn't be that great for Australia in general.
On a sideways note, copper and gold are tracking much better so when it comes to AVB's "core products" they're looking OK. So far no sub $2 prices like GFE.
AVB Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held