This is merely information available on the web regarding Arafura and the Rare Earth industry, although i totally agree with what has been written.
Nolans Rare Earth Project Update
1.A Project Base Case has been established and Project economics are robust:
- A$4.3 billion Net Present Value; - 30% Internal Rate of Return; - Capital payback within four years of operation; and • Arafura is on track to become one of the world’s largest rare earth producers. 2.The demand outlook for rare earths looks strong, with timing of first production from Nolans expected to coincide with a forecast major global rare earths supply shortage.” • An LOI and an MOU have been signed with ThyssenKrupp. 3.http://www.beatthemarket.com.au/2012/08/07/aru-major-project-update/
"This is now a properly costed technically advanced REO project, unlike many of the other contenders."
"We have visited the demonstration plant at ANSTO and is a very impressive facility (and at a cost of A$30M, would want to be)."
"It is also compares to the cost of Lynas 20ktpa REO capacity capital cost of A$916M. A difference is that ARU will produce more neodymium, the high growth magnet metal, and will have a higher selling basket value."
"If it gets a thorium disposal licence, it will be a valuable company, because that is the critical hurdle, as Lynas in finding now."
4.The World requires a stable supply of Rare Earths outside of China and this is what makes companies like ARU ALK LYC so valuable . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-17/west-to-gain-as-china-imports-rare-earths-quest-ceo-says.html
"China’s primary use for REEs is in the magnet industry, which accounted for 30 percent of total Chinese rare earth usage in 2009.”"
5.Neodymium is the high growth magnet metal.
Arafura's"Nolans Bore is highly enriched in Neodymium, which is one of the most sought after and valuable rare earths."
"We’ve focused on getting our feasibility study to an advanced stage and completing the project update.
Discussions are ongoing with ThyssenKrupp, our Korean partner and a number of other potential off takers.
We’ve scheduled a visit to Europe in early September to step up our engagement with other parties.
Similar visits are planned into other parts of the world soon after." 7.The rest of the World outside of china does not want to rely on china for the supply of its Rare Earths, what do you think would happen if China decided to put a freeze on all exports of Rare Earths, that's what makes our Australian Rare Earth companies so valuable .
Obama - Rare Earths speech 13Mar12. Talks about the importance of the supply of Rare Earths to USA. about two and half minutes in.
Rare Earths Neodymium And Dysprosium Breach Critical Supply Numbers
Remember Arafura deposit is very high in Neodymium
9.Rare Earth Supply
Global demand is expected to increase to approximately 200,000t per annum by 2015 leaving a significant opportunity for new sources of non-Chinese supply. Shortfalls are expected for certain rare earth oxides, particularly neodymium and heavy rare earths. According to Roskill projections, prices for the commonly traded, higher priced rare earth oxides are expected to show continued growth to 2015. In particular, europium, neodymium, terbium and dysprosium are expected to be in tight supply and their market prices will remain strong. Rare earth deposits with higher distributions of these rare earth elements are likely to have a meaningful commercial advantage. Western governments including the US, Europe and Japan are seeking to gain control of their own supply chains which are essential for their high tech industries. A forecast of the supply and demand to 2015 as forcast by Roskill is shown below.
Arafura is presently preparing the datas Thyssen Krupp needs for getting grants from the German government. If Thyssen Krupp gets the grants a huge part of the TK investment in Arafura is payed by the German tax payers - me included -. I have heared about win/win situations so many times. The TK/Aru deal will be a tremendous win/win situation if Aru is delivering the right datas.
10b. German Poster ralli9999 Post#: 8476012 Posted: 30/08/12 as follows :
"My glasbowl said last night:"
"Money comes from Germany/TK. They sell the farm in USA and Brazil, to invest in new technologies and .... they found Australia is a good place and ARU to invest. :-) "
11. PROGRESS ON LETTER OF INTENT DISCUSSIONS 26 March 2012
ThyssenKrupp executives recently visited Arafura’s Nolans Bore mineral deposit and the company’s technology demonstration facility at the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) site near Sydney along with Arafura representatives. During this visit the companies agreed to progress their LOI to a more formal commercial off-take arrangement. The companies are also in discussions to broaden the existing LOI to include additional European countries. Under a potential expanded agreement with ThyssenKrupp, the companies forecast sales of approximately 3,000 tonnes per year depending on geographic breadth.
Discussions have also progressed in regards to pursuing possible sources of funding for the Nolans project.
12.ThyssenKrupp Seeks $8.8 Billion For U.S., Brazil Mills; ArcelorMittal, United States Steel Corp And Others Seems As Potential Buyers-Reuters
13.Merkel's China trip is not just panda diplomacy :
Date 30.08.2012
"The economic ties are of absolute paramount importance, since they are operating relatively smoothly at the moment, despite the occasional jostling going on," says the Trier-based sinologist Sebastian Heilmann, referring to intellectual property issues or the export restrictions on the rare earth metals used in the IT industry.
http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,16198337,00.html
ARU Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)